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Traders should brace for significant market fluctuations as the US election approaches, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a tight race. UBS analysts suggest that the election outcome could impact various sectors, and they recommend using potential market volatility to strengthen long-term portfolios, particularly in equities and bonds. Despite expected volatility, they maintain a positive 12-month outlook for US equities, predicting a rise to 6,600 by the end of next year.
Traders are advised to brace for significant market movements as the US election approaches, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck-and-neck in key battleground states. UBS analysts suggest using potential market overreactions to strengthen long-term portfolios, highlighting opportunities in equities, bonds, and gold. Despite expected volatility, they maintain a positive outlook for US equities, projecting a 15% gain by the end of next year.
UBS analysts indicate that the outcome of the US presidential election could significantly influence European stocks, particularly in sectors like industrials and utilities, depending on whether Trump or Harris wins. A Trump victory may lead to risks for cyclical stocks due to potential tariffs and a rollback of green initiatives, while a Harris win could result in policy continuity, benefiting European equities. Initial market reactions may reflect a shift away from "Trump trades," but long-term trends will likely revert to fundamental economic factors.
The current economic environment in the USA is favorable for equities, with robust growth and positive corporate forecasts. A Republican victory, particularly a "red sweep," could enhance market sentiment through deregulation and tax cuts, while a win for Kamala Harris may lead to a modest market impact but could benefit emerging market assets. Investors should prepare for potential market fluctuations based on election outcomes, with a focus on long-term strategies.
U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly as traders prepared for the presidential election, with the 10-year yield at 4.323% and the 2-year at 4.218%. The increase followed a stronger-than-expected services PMI reading of 56.0, the highest since July 2022. Investors are closely watching the election outcomes and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, where a quarter-point rate cut is anticipated.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the stakes are high for countries like Ukraine and Iran, with candidates Trump and Harris presenting starkly different foreign policy approaches. Trump is seen as likely to adopt a hardline stance, potentially reducing support for Ukraine and escalating tensions with Iran, while Harris aims to continue Biden's diplomatic efforts and support for Ukraine. Both candidates pledge unwavering support for Israel, but their broader strategies could significantly impact global stability.
The upcoming US presidential election is expected to create significant uncertainty, impacting economic behavior and investment plans. A close result may lead to challenges and appeals, reminiscent of the 2020 election, with potential market volatility. Depending on the outcome, policy differences between candidates could influence trade, tax rates, and sectors like renewable energy and healthcare, shaping long-term investment strategies.
UBS Asset Management maintains an overweight stance on the JPY and select emerging market currencies like BRL and ZAR, citing favorable valuations and carry potential. Global equities are also favored due to a positive earnings outlook, while the USD is seen as a hedge against tariff risks amid a strong US economy. Conversely, the CHF, European equities, and Japanese government bonds are underweight due to expensive valuations and economic challenges.
In the lead-up to the 2024 US elections, Trump and Harris are nearly tied in polls, with Trump holding a slight 0.1% advantage. Volatility has calmed, but rising yields and cautious investor sentiment on Wall Street signal potential challenges ahead, regardless of the election outcome. The US dollar remains strong, particularly if Trump wins, while concerns about rising debt persist.
IG
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Ukraine's future aid hangs in the balance, with concerns over potential funding cuts regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins. Analysts warn that a Trump administration could drastically reduce military support, while even a Harris victory may struggle to secure significant aid from Congress. The G7 has agreed on a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, but experts emphasize that this is insufficient for long-term needs, highlighting the urgency for Europe to step up its support.

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